Major Swing States in the US Election
Whenever a presidential election comes around in the USA, there are states you already know will vote a certain way long before the votes are cast. For example, Texas will almost always vote Republican and California will do the same for the Democrats. No one is shocked when they see these states turn red or blue. However, what about the states that aren’t as predictable? Two-hundred-seventy out of five-hundred-thirty-eight electoral votes are needed to declare a new President. Fifty-one of the two hundred-seventy required votes will be up for grabs in the three major swing states. Whether it be Trump or Harris, the individual who wins over these states could be the same one who runs the country for the next four years.
Arguably where the campaign trail has been the most turbulent is in Pennsylvania. The most impactful event was the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, an event which, in recent polls, has resulted in even stronger support for the former President. The Keystone State has proved to be a vital battleground for past elections, with its nineteen electoral votes, voting for the eventual President-elect in forty-seven of the fifty-nine presidential elections. After backing Joe Biden in 2020, confidence in Democrats has declined state-wide due to the harsh inflation spikes and cost-of-living issues under the Biden administration. CNN polls show that issues that closely follow the economy for Pennsylvanians are the protection of democracy, abortion rights, and immigration. Since President Biden’s removal as the Democratic nominee, support for the Democrats has increased slightly in Pennsylvania, as reflected in a New York Times poll with forty-nine percent in support of Kamala Harris. This narrowly beats Trump’s support which stands at forty-eight percent.
Often referred to as a “purple” state, North Carolina is another key battleground to be decided in the coming months. Even with this somewhat neutral status, the Tar Heel state has only voted for two Democratic candidates in the past fifty years: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. With sixteen electoral votes, it stands as one of the ten most powerful states in the presidential election. Key issues in North Carolina, very similar to those in fellow swing states in Pennsylvania, include the economy, preserving democracy, and immigration, as shown in a survey done by Quinnipiac University. During candidates' visits to North Carolina, both have heavily focused on the economy. Harris has looked to address the rising fears around inflation, explaining to voters how she plans to reduce costs for consumers. Trump, on the other hand, has emphasized his vision surrounding lowering taxes, increasing US energy production, and reducing unemployment, laying the blame for inflation on the current Biden administration. At the time of writing, it seems as though Donald Trump will retain his hold of the Tar Heel State. Polling done by RealClear Polling reflects Trump’s narrow lead: however, Harris is slowly making progress, reducing Trump’s lead in recent weeks to just two percentage points.
The final major swing state that will have a major say in November is the peach state, Georgia. Right in our backyard, the predominantly Republican state shifted to the Democrat side in 2020 for the first time in almost thirty years when it voted in favor of Joe Biden. However, Biden won the state by less than half a percent, a margin that has virtually been wiped out throughout his presidency. To ensure another Democratic victory, Kamala Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, toured Southeast Georgia at the end of August. Throughout this tour, they attempted to tackle issues close to the hearts of Georgians. A Marist Poll done earlier this year reflected that the main issues at hand for Georgians were immigration, inflation, and health care. Despite her recent tour of Georgia, Harris still looks as though she will lose the state come November. At the time of writing, RealClear Polling has Trump 0.2 percentage points ahead of Harris, with the bulk of his campaign in Georgia still yet to come. Unlike in the other states previously mentioned though, you, the reader, can make a difference with your vote.
These three states could be the difference between winning and losing the White House for these two parties. Historically, these states have backed the winners of elections. Today, their importance is still as massive for politicians and political parties trying to take control of the country. Whoever controls these states will most likely control the White House.
By Luke Birch