China’s Population Problem

China, the country with the world's largest population, has just begun a potentially catastrophic population drop that could result in large-scale effects for both China and the world. The drop has created irreversible effects for China’s economy as well and has created more problems for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Tuesday, January 17th, marked the date of a pivotal moment for China and possibly the greater world. Beijing, reporting that 10.45 million Chinese citizens died, while only 9.56 million were born. If this drop continues, in possibly as little time as ten years we could likely see India surpass China in population.

The numbers came in right after Beijing began relaxing its zero tolerance policy in which large quarantine and public restrictions took place nationwide to slow Covid-19. For a large portion of time, the policy worked. Covid related deaths dropped significantly; while countries including: Japan, and the United States continued to face challenges. Then in late November, and early December, protests erupted across eastern China, with as little faith in the system among Chinese since the Tiananmen Square protest in 1989. Without much of a choice, China began relaxing the policy, resulting in more Covid deaths. This is the first time that China's population has dropped since the Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong’s agriculture reform plan in 1959, that resulted in famine, and over thirty million deaths.

Above this, China abolished the one child policy only seven years ago. As a result for young couples, childhood propaganda has resulted in more couples not wanting to have children, even despite government handouts.

Handouts and benefits in China include tax deductions, worker benefits, and extended maternity leave. In harsh contrast, during the one child policy, IUDs and vasectomies were put in men and women after having a first born (which was most commonly [officially] a boy.) 

Meanwhile, India may surpass China as the most populated country in the world. As of January 23rd, 2023 India’s current population is around 1,415,500,000. China has a population of 1,453,640,000. With a gap of around 40 million it is reasonably expected that China will be surpassed in as little time as ten years. 

It is possible (and likely) that many individuals in the west, including member states of NATO, have positive outlooks on these statistics. NATO has been aware of the aggression toward Taiwan as well as the Ethnic Cleansings in West China. Despite this almost every one across the world could be affected by this

China produces over twenty five percent of the world's manufacturing output. Bringing in over three trillion dollars a year, China, with a GDP of seventeen trillion dollars, completely dominates the manufacturing industry worldwide; let alone in Southeastern Asia. Having jobs outway people could be potentially catastrophic for the world economy as well as families on a domestic level worldwide.

The second problem is a growing aging population. As China proceeds more people will leave their jobs for retirement. As these people leave, their jobs will not be replaced. Aging homes will begin to crowd, and China will spend more money each year making sure that adequate infrastructure for the elderly is in place, meaning that China will spend more money on its people than they can make up.

As much about the population drop is unclear, these reports can't help but raise the alarm for other nations.

By Jackson Stewart