A Guide to What Just Happened in Iran

Since Christmas, relations between the United States and Iran took a dramatic turn for the worst. The first escalation came on December 27 when an Iran backed militia based in Iraq launched a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base. This attack wounded multiple and killed a naturalized American citizen working there as a linguist on a department of defense contract. In response to this, the United States launched a series of drone strikes on the base of the offending militia. Pro-Iran factions within Iraq then began protesting and rioting outside the American embassy in Baghdad.

President Trump and top military officials made it clear that any outright attack on the embassy would be met with a strong military reaction. Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley, told reporters “anyone who attempts to overrun” the facility “will run into a buzzsaw.”  The situation seemed to be stalling as the protests continued, but then, early on January 2, the United States carried out a drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.

Initially, the explanation provided for this strike was extremely vague. At the time, the President claimed there was intelligence suggesting that Soleimani was planning attacks on American targets, but Iran claimed the attack was an assassanation. Regardless of whatever current intelligence indicated the strike was necessary, it is clear that Soleimani has been an enemy of the United States, except for the fight against Isis, in which he was unexpectedly an ally. Soleimani was in command of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds force. This is a unit of the Iranian military responsible for overseas operations. The United States classifies the Quds Force as a foreign terrorist organization. During the United States invasion of Iraq, it is believed that Soleimani was in charge of the distribution of EFP devices (Explosively formed penetrators) t o insurgents in Iraq. This device is designed to penetrate the armor of Humvees and other armored vehicles. Solemani was also behind infamous plots in the US, such as a failed attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador at a restaurant in D.C.

Although the United States saw Soleimani as an enemy, Iranians hailed him as a hero. After his death, the Iranian government vowed to get revenge on the United States. US soldiers and diplomats stationed in Iraq were the ones immediately at risk of attack. For multiple days, the world waited for a response from Iran. Late on January 7th, Iran launched over a dozen ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases housing US soldiers. 10 missiles struck the Al Asad base, 1 hit the Erbil base, and 4 missiles failed to reach their target. There were no casualties as a result of these missiles. The nature of the attack made it seem Iran may have intended to send a message without causing any significant damage. Iran used surface to surface ballistic missiles as opposed to drone launched cruise missiles, like those used in the attack on a Saudi oil facility this past summer. Due to the trajectory ballistic missiles take, a US radar was able to detect the missiles much faster than if cruise missiles were used. Trump’s response the next day served to deescalate the situation and established that there would be no further response from the US.

Shortly after the attack on US bases, Ukraine Air flight 752 crashed outside Tehran. Initially, Iran claimed the crash was a result of mechanical failure within the aircraft. However, over the next few days, US intelligence pieced together information that suggested that Iran shot down the plane. Iran continued to deny these allegations, but eventually video evidence came out showing missiles explode near the plane. Iranian citizens responded to this news by organizing protests against the Iranian government's foreign policy that brought the country to the brink of war and led to the death of 173 civilians.

The United States and Iran have had a history of tumultuous relations, which you can read more about here. Iran's location surrounded by countries in which the United States has interests almost guarantees more clashes in the future. This time the situation was resolved, but tensions will rise again and it will be up to a new administration to prevent war.