Trump Announces Unprecedented State of Emergency: Here’s What you Need to Know
On February 15, 2019, President Donald Trump put the United States into a state of emergency. What is a state of emergency, you ask? A national state of emergency is a time period in which the government can bypass the normal approval process and perform actions that would normally be denied; for example, in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, President George W. Bush grounded all flights. There are around 400 different actions Trump can declare in a national emergency, but he must specifically clarify to Congress which actions he is using as well as where he will get the funding.
Trump has defended his actions by saying that they are the same as the ones of his predecessors, and that the state of the United States today is similar to when past president George W. Bush declared a state of emergency immediately following the events of 9/11.
However, Trump’s new plan isn’t going to go off without a hitch; this national emergency is going straight to court and there’s no guarantee that Trump will win the case, and for as long as the legal proceedings are ongoing, Trump cannot start building his wall. According to The Atlantic, another risk of going through the legal activities could be the fact that many citizens see this national emergency as Trump aspiring to dictatorship - and if he loses, those same citizens will see him as a defeated dictator.
Another possible bump in the road for Trump is that Congress will have the power to basically nullify the national emergency. Although the chances of it actually succeeding are very slim. The easiest part of the process will be Nancy Pelosi calling for a vote in the House of Representatives; if that passes by a majority vote (which it most likely will) it immediately moves to the Senate, which is where we will see the largest effect on US politics. Many republican senators have already expressed distaste for the idea of a national emergency, and forcing the Senate to vote on it will solidify everyone's viewpoints. Regardless of whether or not this passes, it is very likely to divide the republican senators, and make it much harder for them to work together in the future.
Now, if the bill passes through the Senate, it lands on Trump’s desk. This means that in the end, even if it makes it through the Republican controlled Senate, it still is Trump’s final call as to whether the bill is passed. Trump has already said that he would veto this bill and as such, it goes back to Congress to see if both the House and the Senate can muster two-thirds majority to overrule Trump’s decision. This will be a difficult feat. Even though the House’s democratic lead does not make up two thirds, it is unlikely to be approved in the Senate since some republicans have already expressed concern for the wall and are unlikely to override the veto.
With the 2020 election breathing down everyone's necks, the senators’ positions on this issue will determine whether they get votes from moderates in their party and whether or not Trump will campaign for them. This could impact the likelihood of some republicans maintaining their seats.
In short, not only does this state of emergency have long- and short-term impacts on politics, it could pave the way to results of the upcoming elections.